[From "New Castro, New President... New Rules?"
Patrick J. Haney & Walt Vanderbush]

Prior to the 2008 US presidential election, political junkies and cigar lovers alike pondered whether the nearly half-century-old US embargo of Cuba will finally come to an end. Maybe it will just fade away, having been chipped apart by exceptions, licenses, and initiatives. For example, with US firms already allowed to sell food and medicine to Cuba as long as they get the cash up front, the end of the ban on travel by Americans to the island would pump more dollars into the Cuban economy, thus providing more cash for more trade, making the embargo almost irrelevant. Or, it could go out with a bang; the new president, for example, could make an early dramatic opening to Cuba. Or perhaps the embargo policy will live on, maybe even be revitalized. What is most likely to happen? We look at both sides; first the case for possible change in embargo policy, and then reasons that the embargo could survive at least a while longer. Several factors merit close attention in the coming months, as they could prove to be early bellwethers of what to expect.